TL;DR
Waymo's robotaxi fleet has reached roughly 4,000 vehicles across 15 U.S. cities, but the real story is a 49% surge in Texas in three weeks, powered by a Chinese-built minivan the company is betting its profitability on.
What happened
- Waymo now operates ~4,000 robotaxis across 15 U.S. cities, up from just 3 cities in September 2024.
- 500,000 paid rides per week is the current ridership average, a sharp climb from the company's earlier scale.
- Texas fleet jumped 49% in three weeks, reaching 1,102 registered autonomous vehicles as of September 24, per the Texas Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Tracker.
- The surge is driven by the Ojai minivan, a modified Zeekr RT built in China, outfitted with Waymo's sixth-generation self-driving system at its Arizona factory.
- 80% of the fleet is concentrated in California and Texas, with the remaining ~800 vehicles spread across Arizona, Florida, and newer markets.
Why it matters
- The Ojai is Waymo's mass-scale bet: lower unit costs, a hardened interior for heavy commercial use, and Google Gemini as an in-car assistant, all designed to push toward profitability.
- Tariffs are eroding that cost advantage: Chinese-built vehicles face steep U.S. import duties, and Waymo is absorbing the hit on every Ojai it imports.
- Research firm MoffettNathanson projects 5,100 Ojai imports by year-end, signaling Waymo is accelerating despite the tariff drag, not waiting for trade policy to improve.
- The Uber partnership in Austin (launched March 2025) gave Waymo a distribution channel to scale Texas fast, a model now replicated in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.
- Concentration in two states means a single regulatory or safety incident in California or Texas could disproportionately disrupt the entire commercial operation.
What to watch next
- Whether Ojai's share of the Texas fleet keeps climbing past one-third: that ratio is the clearest signal of how fast Waymo can execute its cost-reduction strategy.
- Florida and Las Vegas fleet registrations: MoffettNathanson's import data suggests those markets are next in line for a surge similar to Texas.
- Any shift in U.S. tariff policy on Chinese vehicles: even a modest reduction would meaningfully change Waymo's unit economics and could accelerate the timeline to profitability.
Originally published on Present of AI, a daily source-linked AI news timeline. Read the full timeline or browse the open dataset.